Here are 100 books that The Economics of Time and Ignorance fans have personally recommended if you like
The Economics of Time and Ignorance.
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I’ve always been fascinated by the quest to understand how nature works and to find patterns amid complexity. This drew me towards physics, which seemed unparalleled in its ability to uncover general rules. In contrast, biology seemed merely descriptive, and despite a fondness for wildlife, I stayed away from the subject in school. It turns out, however, that physics and biology are perfect companions; a whole field, biophysics, explores how physical principles are central to the workings of living things. I became a biophysicist, researching topics like the organization of gut microbes and teaching and writing about biophysics more broadly, at scales from DNA to ecosystems.
This isn’t a book about biology, but it makes the list anyway. Genes, chemistry, and mechanics stretch our conception of life. Still, there’s more needed to make sense of it all: the emerging understanding that dynamic interactions, feedback loops, and a bit of randomness make life alive. We need more books that lay this out; this was one of my motivations for writing my book.
Philip Ball’s very recent How Life Works seems masterful, and I’m sure it would make this list if I were writing a month or two later, after I’ve finished reading it. But since I can’t list either my book or his, I’ll list Gleick’s book, one of the best popular science books ever. It dives into the science of order and chaos, from the turbulence of Jupiter’s red spot to the unpredictability of weather, with a bit of biological pattern formation in the mix.…
Uncover one of the most exciting frontiers of modern physics in this fascinating, insightful and accessible overview of Chaos theory.
'An exceedingly readable introduction to a new intellectual world' Observer
From the turbulence of the weather to the complicated rythmns of the human heart, 'chaos' is at the centre of our day to day lives. Cutting across several scientific disciplines, James Gleick explores and elucidates the science of the unpredicatable with an immensely readable narrative style and flair.
'An awe-inspiring book. Reading Chaos gave me the sensation that someone had just found the light-switch' Douglas Adams
I believe that knowledge is power. Understanding how something works leads to practical applications. In markets, I believe you should develop your own ideas on how to invest rather than being told. After all, how can you profit if you’re doing what everyone else is doing? Markets are efficient enough to give an opportunity to everyone but advantage to no one, unless you do something different than the crowd. My list is designed to give you information to develop investment strategies based on chaos theory, complexity, and fractals. It is not designed to tell you how to invest.
While I’ve spent much of my career debunking the Random Walk Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis, I believe you need to understand where we’re coming from in order to develop new ideas.
Cootner’s anthology contains all of the important early writings that became Capital Market Theory. You will find Bachilier’s original paper from 1900 postulating using statistics to analyze markets. Mandelbrot’s original paper suggesting that markets are not a random walk is here, too.
It’s an important time capsule of the development of market theory. I’ve read it extensively because you can’t criticize widely held ideas unless you know them yourself.
I believe that knowledge is power. Understanding how something works leads to practical applications. In markets, I believe you should develop your own ideas on how to invest rather than being told. After all, how can you profit if you’re doing what everyone else is doing? Markets are efficient enough to give an opportunity to everyone but advantage to no one, unless you do something different than the crowd. My list is designed to give you information to develop investment strategies based on chaos theory, complexity, and fractals. It is not designed to tell you how to invest.
Readers of this list may be surprised that there are no books by Benoit Mandelbrot, the father of fractals. I found his books fascinating but frustrating. Feder’s book, by contrast, was readable and usable.
This book taught me how to do fractal analysis. While Feder’s book has nothing to do with markets, it has everything to do with applications. While I reuse much of Feder’s methodology in my books, readers will find it useful to see other practical applications of fractal analysis.
This lovely little book will take off and fly on its own power, but the author has asked me to write a few words, and one should not say no to a friend. Specific topics in fractal geometry and its applications have already benefited from several excellent surveys of moderate length, and gossip and preliminary drafts tell us that we shall soon see several monographic treatments of broader topics. For the teacher, however, these surveys and monographs are not enough, and an urgent need for more helpful books has been widely recognized. To write such a book is no easy…
I believe that knowledge is power. Understanding how something works leads to practical applications. In markets, I believe you should develop your own ideas on how to invest rather than being told. After all, how can you profit if you’re doing what everyone else is doing? Markets are efficient enough to give an opportunity to everyone but advantage to no one, unless you do something different than the crowd. My list is designed to give you information to develop investment strategies based on chaos theory, complexity, and fractals. It is not designed to tell you how to invest.
Fractals are a combination of chance and rules, randomness and order. This book gives us multiple examples of how important randomness and uncertainty are to evolution, adaptability, and innovation.
This book is not about the markets, but it does show us how the element of uncertainty that cannot be eliminated from investing is crucial to the functioning of markets and other non-linear dynamical systems. Since risk and uncertainty are closely tied, understanding how chance functions in the development of markets will help in the development of market strategies.
Using game theory and examples of actual games people play, Nobel laureate Manfred Eigen and Ruthild Winkler show how the elements of chance and rules underlie all that happens in the universe, from genetic behavior through economic growth to the composition of music. To illustrate their argument, the authors turn to classic games--backgammon, bridge, and chess--and relate them to physical, biological, and social applications of probability theory and number theory. Further, they have invented, and present here, more than a dozen playable games derived from scientific models for equilibrium, selection, growth, and even the composition of RNA.
I sometimes describe myself as a stealth Zen teacher working in the business world. I've founded and been CEO of three companies, including the Search Inside Yourself Leadership Institute, a company I helped create and launch inside of Google's headquarters. I'm an executive coach and consultant to CEOs and leaders in the corporate and non-profit worlds. Prior to my business career I was a resident of the San Francisco Zen Center for 10 years. I'm the author of 5 books.
This book offers profound insights on navigating life's uncertainties, with wisdom and compassion.
Chodron guides readers to embrace impermanence and find freedom within uncertainty. She encourages cultivating mindfulness and compassion as tools for transforming fear and resistance into opportunities for growth and awakening.
Through humor, personal anecdotes, and teachings, Chodron guides us to live authentically, discover resilience, and find greater meaning and success in all parts of our lives.
Best-selling author and spiritual teacher Pema Chödrön shares life-changing practices for living with wisdom, confidence, and integrity amidst confusing situations and uncertain times.
We live in difficult times. Life so often seems like a turbulent river threatening to drown us and destroy our world. Why, then, shouldn’t we cling to the certainty of the comfortable—to our deep-seated habits and familiar ways? Because, Pema Chödrön teaches, that kind of fear-based clinging keeps us from the infinitely more powerful experience of being fully alive. The teachings she presents here—known as the “Three Commitments”—provide a treasure trove of wisdom for learning to step…
As a thirteen-year-old boy, I read Sigmund Freud’s Interpretation of Dreams and I became totally fascinated by Freud’s slow, methodical questioning that eventually revealed deeply hidden unconscious conflicts in the lives of his patients. Then and there I resolved to become a psychiatrist. As a psychiatrist, I explored my patients’ early memories. Over the years, I authored seven books, including The Secret Life of the Unborn Child, published in 28 countries now. I have previously taught at Harvard University, the University of Toronto, York University (Toronto), and St. Mary’s University. This book takes my studies of memory a step further and drills right down to the intelligence of cells.
Andy Clark is a Professor of Cognitive Philosophy at the University of Sussex. He asks as I and many others have, how does mere matter give rise to non-material mental states, including consciousness? He explores with brilliant wit and wisdom the intersecting domains of neuroscience, psychology, artificial intelligence, and robotics. We are both synergizers, gathering ideas from leading scientists and thinkers arriving at new theories and explanations of natural phenomena based on those studies.
We explore the wiring and plumbing of the brain; we are spelunkers of cognition, brain, and mind. While much of Clark’s discussion veers towards artificial intelligence and robotics, my interest lies in understanding the functioning of cells, both neuronal and corporeal.
How is it that thoroughly physical material beings such as ourselves can think, dream, feel, create and understand ideas, theories and concepts? How does mere matter give rise to all these non-material mental states, including consciousness itself? An answer to this central question of our existence is emerging at the busy intersection of neuroscience, psychology, artificial intelligence, and robotics.
In this groundbreaking work, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores exciting new theories from these fields that reveal minds like ours to be prediction machines - devices that have evolved to anticipate the incoming streams of sensory stimulation before they…
I’m an economist who started out in stockbroking. But that felt like an exploitative industry and, looking for a more positive role, I moved to the consumer organisation Which? There, I cut my teeth helping people make the most of their money and then started my own freelance business. Along the way, I’ve worked with many clients (including financial regulators and the Open University where I now also teach), taken some of the exams financial advisers do and written 30 or so books on personal finance. The constant in my work is trying to empower individuals in the face of markets and systems that are often skewed against them.
US economist Frank Knight is credited with distinguishing uncertainty from risk back in 1921. Yet the two are often conflated.
Kay (an eminent economist) and King (a former Governor of the Bank of England) argue powerfully that the distinction does matter. They range widely across macroeconomics, politics, and consumer choices to show why reducing the future to a set of numbers (probabilities) creates a false – and often disastrous – illusion of power over future outcomes.
They argue that instead we should aim to make decisions that stand a reasonable chance of being robust against unknowable, as well as forecastable, paths that the future might take. That’s very much the ethos of my own books: building in resilience is a key part of successful personal financial planning.
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000,…
As a professional emergency and risk management practitioner, I’ve spent my career supporting and shaping emergency management policy and practice in every context from the village to global levels. What I’ve found to be most rewarding are those opportunities where I’ve been able to translate this knowledge and practice into training the next generation of emergency managers. The textbooks I’ve written, which include the first comprehensive book on emergency management (Introduction to Emergency Management, currently in its 7th edition) and the first book on homeland security in the United States (Introduction to Homeland Security, currently in its 6th Edition), are currently in use at hundreds of universities worldwide.
We’ve all felt like a Cassandra at times, imploring people to see the obvious disaster to come - only to be ignored.
And even when that disaster as predicted materializes, we are rarely credited for having successfully seen what others could not so easily imagine. That said, for every accurate prediction, there are dozens, if not hundreds or even thousands of predictions that prove false.
As risk managers, our job is to reduce uncertainty by predicting the future as accurately as possible. So how do we sift through the chatter and find the most accurate warnings?
This book, written by former national security experts, offers an interesting methodology that can help us do that.
I’m a Swiss researcher and university professor who applies mathematics and psychology to build quantitative models for financial decision-making. Most of my scientific contributions belong to a field of research called behavioral finance, that is, the study of how psychology affects financial decisions. I love mathematics, and I am fascinated by its ability to describe complex mechanisms, including those that generate human behavior.
This book is certainly the most technical among my favorites. However, I cannot resist listing it here because I really love it. Honestly, I highly esteem Peter Wakker, and I learned tremendously much from his scientific papers. Therefore, I read this book with high expectations, and these were fully fulfilled.
I learned from this book what prospect theory is and how it developed. I learned Prof. Wakker’s view on decision theory, and this strongly shaped my personal understanding of many decision-theoretical problems.
Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to…
All of these books come with elements of uncertainty and risk – it takes heroism (or stupidity) to tackle them head-on. Fantasy and Science Fiction are nice settings for it – authors can and have conjured up situations that we possibly couldn’t tackle in the real world – but their solutions are often very much what we would go with in the real world. Besides, anxiety creates problems. The more we have anxious, unprepared people – the more problems we get – which is why it should be important to learn everything one can about uncertainty, heroics (and not the pathological kind), and risk.
Incerto, that is Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Antifragile and Skin in the Game (+ Bed of Procrustes, which is a collection of very smart aphorisms) are not exactly fiction, but maestro added fiction into it anyway. Nero, Fat Tony, Jevgenia demonstrate on unrelated occasions how the ideas and properties (found in the "real world" discussed in the book would unfold. The overall theme of the book, however, discusses risk - risk-taking. And believe it or not, risk exists in all domains of life, hence, using this book to meditate on it deeply made me appreciate... It made me appreciate life, and all things in life – more than I used to. It might sound like a lot, and it is... If there is just one non-fiction book you will read, make it Taleb's Incerto.
The landmark five-book series—all together in one ebook bundle
The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it.
This ebook bundle includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF…
