Here are 100 books that Chances Are . . . fans have personally recommended if you like
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In the early 2000s, I noticed that lots of good American jobs were being lost to China. I was taught in college economics that trade was always win-win and that the government should stay out of the economy. I started reading the literature and found a number of flaws with these free trade and extreme free-market doctrines. The flaws were there in plain sight, but US trade economists, with vanishingly few exceptions, were ignoring them. Not only were the costs to our economy and our workers enormous, but the frustration of American workers with 30 years of failed promises by both parties has made our politics angrier and more divisive.
This book makes the novel and, to me, fascinating case that the economy is an evolutionary system that is constantly changing, implying that the static equilibria of conventional trade models are not usefully predictive. It also made it clear to me, from a different perspective, that the industries in which a country succeeds are path-dependent.
If you are a mosquito, the next evolutionary mutation will not produce an elephant. Likewise, it is much easier to design and manufacture 3 nanometer-scale chips if you have already designed and manufactured 5 nanometer-scale chips. This drove home to me how important retaining the key industries of today is for our long-term prosperity.
Over 6.4 billion people participate in a $36.5 trillion global economy, designed and overseen by no one. How did this marvel of self-organized complexity evolve? How is wealth created within this system? And how can wealth be increased for the benefit of individuals, businesses, and society? In The Origin of Wealth, Eric D. Beinhocker argues that modern science provides a radical perspective on these age-old questions, with far-reaching implications. According to Beinhocker, wealth creation is the product of a simple but profoundly powerful evolutionary formula: differentiate, select, and amplify. In this view, the economy is a "complex adaptive system" in…
Wealth Odyssey is a summary work based on a 12-hour adult education course I taught for 10 years. It’s important to me to educate people through my 29 years in the profession (1994-2023), my focus has always been on helping people first understand that retirement means you’re wealthy enough not to work anymore – working is optional. You don’t need to be rich. Wealth is scalable for any income level and comes from foundation income and investments to supplement that foundation to support your desired lifestyle’s Standard of Individual Living (SOIL) for as long as you live. Your focus should be on your plan and apply a few concepts grounded in well researched evidence.
Personal financial planning has to include investing. With investing comes risk. There are many books on investing. There are few on how to approach investing. Although a short book, it succinctly covers how to think about stock returns, modern financial theory, building a portfolio with risk also in mind, and applying Monte Carlo.
This book combines risk with returns so that you can better target risk to your financial plans. Having a long term, which means the rest of your life, view helps you understand everything has cycles. Using cycles of different investments in a portfolio construct, rather than viewing each investment separately, helps mute cyclical effects on your plans.
I always refer to the fundamentals discussed in this book when I begin to second guess my own plans when markets “misbehave” as they always do. It reaffirms how the application of modern financial theory has worked in the past…
In their expanded and updated 2018 edition of “Reducing the Risk of Black Swans: Using the Science of Investing to Capture Returns with Less Volatility,” Larry Swedroe, author of the bestselling "The Only Guide" series of investment books, and Kevin Grogan, co-author of "The Only Guide You'll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan," revisit what it takes to build more efficient portfolios in today’s evolving financial landscape.
Designed specifically for those seeking to enrich their technical knowledge of recent advancements in the world of evidence-based investing, the revised second edition reexamines and enhances Swedroe and Grogan’s roadmap to an…
Wealth Odyssey is a summary work based on a 12-hour adult education course I taught for 10 years. It’s important to me to educate people through my 29 years in the profession (1994-2023), my focus has always been on helping people first understand that retirement means you’re wealthy enough not to work anymore – working is optional. You don’t need to be rich. Wealth is scalable for any income level and comes from foundation income and investments to supplement that foundation to support your desired lifestyle’s Standard of Individual Living (SOIL) for as long as you live. Your focus should be on your plan and apply a few concepts grounded in well researched evidence.
Everyone makes mental shortcuts and also have biases. How can we learn to recognize errors in thinking when it comes to our money? How can we make better choices when it comes to saving or spending? Are we normal or irrational?
Behavioral finance began in the 1970s and I found Statman’s discussion fascinating on almost every page. He sums up these biases when applied to our financial choices as well as to the markets.
Normal people have wants and emotions. This contrasts with many books about how people are irrational. Indeed, we are more normal than irrational once we understand that poor choices are actually normal. Statman describes how to make better choices by recognizing choice and biases we have.
These concepts are important if you want to grow your wealth without making someone else wealthy through your spending habits.
Finance for Normal People teaches behavioral finance to people like you and me - normal people, neither rational nor irrational. We are consumers, savers, investors, and managers - corporate managers, money managers, financial advisers, and all other financial professionals.
The book guides us to know our wants - including hope for riches, protection from poverty, caring for family, sincere social responsibility and high social status. It teaches financial facts and human behavior, including making cognitive and emotional shortcuts and avoiding cognitive and emotional errors such as overconfidence, hindsight, exaggerated fear, and unrealistic hope. And it guides us to banish ignorance,…
Wealth Odyssey is a summary work based on a 12-hour adult education course I taught for 10 years. It’s important to me to educate people through my 29 years in the profession (1994-2023), my focus has always been on helping people first understand that retirement means you’re wealthy enough not to work anymore – working is optional. You don’t need to be rich. Wealth is scalable for any income level and comes from foundation income and investments to supplement that foundation to support your desired lifestyle’s Standard of Individual Living (SOIL) for as long as you live. Your focus should be on your plan and apply a few concepts grounded in well researched evidence.
This is a wonderful book organized around four main concepts, each valuable in their own right: 1) The Theory of Investing; 2) The History of Investing; 3) The Psychology of Investing; and 3) The Business of Investing.
The latter, the business section makes it clear the stockbroker is not your friend, even though they’re friendly (by design). Having started my career on the sales side of the business, I quickly learned the agenda is less about the customer and more about product sales, even though I was also a Certified Financial Planner ProfessionalTM.
I dropped sales licenses and became a fee-only advisor and member of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) where the focus is on planning and helping clients achieve their wants and goals.
The principles in Bernstein’s book marry well with those of both Swedroe’s and Statman’s books (above) in the application of growing…
This new edition of the bestselling guide brings sophisticated investors-including institutional and individual investors, investment bankers, and those who want to follow in the footsteps of legends like John Bogle-up to date on ETFs, risk management, neuropsychological investing concepts, and more
Since its original publication two decades ago, The Four Pillars of Investing has become a classic guide for serious investors. The practicalities of investing, however, have changed dramatically, particularly pertaining to ETFs, and thinking has evolved about a host of key issues, such as lifecycle finance, the nature of risk, and basic finance and neuropsychological concepts. This new edition…
I am a financial data scientist. I think it is important that data scientists are highly specialized if they want to be effective in their careers. I run a business called Conlan Scientific out of Charlotte, NC where me and my team of financial data scientists tackle complicated machine learning problems for our clients. Quant trading is a gladiator’s arena of financial data science. Anyone can try it, but few succeed at it. I am sharing my top five list of math books that are essential to success in this field. I hope you enjoy.
Everyone knows what probability is, and we all understand how a coin flip works, but not everyone can explain the optimal betting strategies for a roulette table. We don’t study probability to understand the likelihood of events. We study probability to understand the expected outcomes of business processes that depend on those events.
In other words, this book won’t just teach you about probabilities, it will teach you about business strategies associated with those probabilities. It will help you answer a question like: How do I maximize the profit on this life insurance policy, given this set of survival probabilities? It isn’t just a likelihood question, it is a business question. I highly recommend that anyone studying probability does so through an actuarial lens.
This book covers the basic probability of distributions with an emphasis on applications from the areas of investments, insurance, and engineering. Written by a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Society of Actuaries with many years of experience as a university professor and industry practitioner, the book is suitable as a text for senior undergraduate and beginning graduate students in mathematics, statistics, actuarial science, finance, or engineering as well as a reference for practitioners in these fields. The book is particularly well suited for students preparing for professional exams, and for several years it has been recommended as…
My father, when he consented to talk about all the moments in his life when the odds against his survival were so small as to make them statistically non-existent, would say, ‘I was lucky.’ Trying to understand what he meant got me started on this book. As well as being a novelist, I’m a poker player. Luck is a subject that every poker player has a relationship to; more importantly it’s a subject that every person has a relationship to. The combination of family history and intellectual curiosity and the gambler’s desire to win drove me on this quest.
Sadly, Games, Gods, and Gambling by FN David is out of print.This is the next best thing. Lorraine Daston has the supreme gift of making the complicated idea seem straightforward. This is an account of the frenzy for measuring that happened in the 18th century, and how it made the world we live in today, when the gambler’s eye for odds has become the algorithm of taming chance that guides all our decisions.
What did it mean to be reasonable in the Age of Reason? Classical probabilists from Jakob Bernouli through Pierre Simon Laplace intended their theory as an answer to this question--as "nothing more at bottom than good sense reduced to a calculus," in Laplace's words. In terms that can be easily grasped by nonmathematicians, Lorraine Daston demonstrates how this view profoundly shaped the internal development of probability theory and defined its applications.
My primary interest is in brain function. Because the principal job of
the brain is to process information, it is necessary to define exactly
what information is. For that, there is no substitute for Claude
Shannon’s theory of information. This theory is not only quite
remarkable in its own right, but it is essential for telecoms,
computers, machine learning (and understanding brain function).
I have written ten "tutorial introduction" books, on topics which vary
from quantum mechanics to AI.
In a parallel universe, I am still an Associate Professor at the
University of Sheffield, England.
This is a more comprehensive and mathematically rigorous book than Pierce’s book. For the novice, it should be read-only after first reading Pierce’s more informal text. Due to its vintage, the layout is fairly cramped, but the content is impeccable. At almost 500 pages, it covers a huge amount of material. This was my main reference book on information theory for many years, but it now sits alongside more recent texts, like MacKay’s book (see below). It is also published by Dover, so it is reasonably priced.
Written for an engineering audience, this book has a threefold purpose: (1) to present elements of modern probability theory — discrete, continuous, and stochastic; (2) to present elements of information theory with emphasis on its basic roots in probability theory; and (3) to present elements of coding theory. The emphasis throughout the book is on such basic concepts as sets, the probability measure associated with sets, sample space, random variables, information measure, and capacity. These concepts proceed from set theory to probability theory and then to information and coding theories. No formal prerequisites are required other than the usual undergraduate…
I started my career in neuroscience. I wanted to understand brains. That is still proving difficult, and somewhere along the way, I realized my real motivation was to build things, and I wound up working in AI. I love the elegance of mathematical models of the world. Even the simplest machine learning model has complex implications, and exploring them is a joy.
My knees tremble and my heart quakes when I think of how much work must have gone into these two companion volumes. Collectively, they are more than four times the length of my book, covering the whole of machine learning.
It is an essential encyclopedic resource that should be on the desk of anyone serious about machine learning.
A detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning, presented through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory.
This book offers a detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning (including deep learning) through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. The book covers mathematical background (including linear algebra and optimization), basic supervised learning (including linear and logistic regression and deep neural networks), as well as more advanced topics (including transfer learning and unsupervised learning). End-of-chapter exercises allow students to apply what they have learned, and an appendix covers notation.
I’ve wanted to be a philosopher since I read Plato’s Phaedo when I was 17, a new immigrant in Canada. Since then, I’ve been fascinated with time, space, and quantum mechanics and involved in the great debates about their mysteries. I saw probability coming into play more and more in curious roles both in the sciences and in practical life. These five books led me on an exciting journey into the history of probability, the meaning of risk, and the use of probability to assess the possibility of harm. I was gripped, entertained, illuminated, and often amazed at what I was discovering.
I found a copy of this book in the sixties. That copy, much loved, was lost in moves and mayhem. Now, I only have a Dover reprint (water-logged during yet another move), but I have never been without and would search high and low if I were.
This is also a history of probability but with a very different focus. Ms. David was a statistician able to explain the calculations intuitively (good to assign to my students). But she was also thoroughly interested in the personalities involved. What was Galileo like? What happened to Pascal at Port-Royal?
I felt personally drawn into the historical narrative that often reads like a novel.
The development of gambling techniques led to the beginning of modern statistics, and this absorbing history illustrates the science's rise with vignettes from the lives of Galileo, Fermat, Pascal, and others. Fascinating allusions to the classics, archaeology, biography, poetry, and fiction endow this volume with universal appeal. 1962 edition.
I’ve wanted to be a philosopher since I read Plato’s Phaedo when I was 17, a new immigrant in Canada. Since then, I’ve been fascinated with time, space, and quantum mechanics and involved in the great debates about their mysteries. I saw probability coming into play more and more in curious roles both in the sciences and in practical life. These five books led me on an exciting journey into the history of probability, the meaning of risk, and the use of probability to assess the possibility of harm. I was gripped, entertained, illuminated, and often amazed at what I was discovering.
One day, in conversation with Ian Hacking, he announced a new passion: Archaeology of ideas. The concept we now have of probability was new, he said; it was born in the 17th century and was different from anything before!
I love this book because it is, first of all, a philosopher’s take on history. Hacking confronts the conceptual puzzles that defeated some of the best mathematical minds, raises controversial questions about what it all meant, and gives us a new vision of the history of concepts.
Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century, although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. Hacking invokes a wide intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics, and the theology of the period. He argues that the transformations that made it possible for probability concepts to emerge have constrained all subsequent development of probability theory and…
