Here are 35 books that Reducing the Risk of Black Swans fans have personally recommended if you like
Reducing the Risk of Black Swans.
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In the early 2000s, I noticed that lots of good American jobs were being lost to China. I was taught in college economics that trade was always win-win and that the government should stay out of the economy. I started reading the literature and found a number of flaws with these free trade and extreme free-market doctrines. The flaws were there in plain sight, but US trade economists, with vanishingly few exceptions, were ignoring them. Not only were the costs to our economy and our workers enormous, but the frustration of American workers with 30 years of failed promises by both parties has made our politics angrier and more divisive.
This book makes the novel and, to me, fascinating case that the economy is an evolutionary system that is constantly changing, implying that the static equilibria of conventional trade models are not usefully predictive. It also made it clear to me, from a different perspective, that the industries in which a country succeeds are path-dependent.
If you are a mosquito, the next evolutionary mutation will not produce an elephant. Likewise, it is much easier to design and manufacture 3 nanometer-scale chips if you have already designed and manufactured 5 nanometer-scale chips. This drove home to me how important retaining the key industries of today is for our long-term prosperity.
Over 6.4 billion people participate in a $36.5 trillion global economy, designed and overseen by no one. How did this marvel of self-organized complexity evolve? How is wealth created within this system? And how can wealth be increased for the benefit of individuals, businesses, and society? In The Origin of Wealth, Eric D. Beinhocker argues that modern science provides a radical perspective on these age-old questions, with far-reaching implications. According to Beinhocker, wealth creation is the product of a simple but profoundly powerful evolutionary formula: differentiate, select, and amplify. In this view, the economy is a "complex adaptive system" in…
Wealth Odyssey is a summary work based on a 12-hour adult education course I taught for 10 years. It’s important to me to educate people through my 29 years in the profession (1994-2023), my focus has always been on helping people first understand that retirement means you’re wealthy enough not to work anymore – working is optional. You don’t need to be rich. Wealth is scalable for any income level and comes from foundation income and investments to supplement that foundation to support your desired lifestyle’s Standard of Individual Living (SOIL) for as long as you live. Your focus should be on your plan and apply a few concepts grounded in well researched evidence.
When people think of financial planning, their first thought is investing. Their second thought is retirement.
Kaplans explain risk succinctly: “Everything is possible, yet only one thing happens.” People understand risk but don’t really understand how to apply it rationally to investing (market risks) or to retirement (longevity risk).
But first, having an understanding of what risk is and isn’t, and where it comes from is important before you can apply it to what fuels your plans – markets and longevity.
This book helped me formulate the basic planning concepts I use in my book since personal finance is all about taking risks – as are any other decisions and actions you take in life.
A compelling journey through history, mathematics, and philosophy, charting humanity’s struggle against randomness
Our lives are played out in the arena of chance. However little we recognize it in our day-to-day existence, we are always riding the odds, seeking out certainty but settling—reluctantly—for likelihood, building our beliefs on the shadowy props of probability. Chances Are is the story of man’s millennia-long search for the tools to manage the recurrent but unpredictable—to help us prevent, or at least mitigate, the seemingly random blows of disaster, disease, and injustice. In these pages, we meet the brilliant individuals who developed the first abstract…
Wealth Odyssey is a summary work based on a 12-hour adult education course I taught for 10 years. It’s important to me to educate people through my 29 years in the profession (1994-2023), my focus has always been on helping people first understand that retirement means you’re wealthy enough not to work anymore – working is optional. You don’t need to be rich. Wealth is scalable for any income level and comes from foundation income and investments to supplement that foundation to support your desired lifestyle’s Standard of Individual Living (SOIL) for as long as you live. Your focus should be on your plan and apply a few concepts grounded in well researched evidence.
Everyone makes mental shortcuts and also have biases. How can we learn to recognize errors in thinking when it comes to our money? How can we make better choices when it comes to saving or spending? Are we normal or irrational?
Behavioral finance began in the 1970s and I found Statman’s discussion fascinating on almost every page. He sums up these biases when applied to our financial choices as well as to the markets.
Normal people have wants and emotions. This contrasts with many books about how people are irrational. Indeed, we are more normal than irrational once we understand that poor choices are actually normal. Statman describes how to make better choices by recognizing choice and biases we have.
These concepts are important if you want to grow your wealth without making someone else wealthy through your spending habits.
Finance for Normal People teaches behavioral finance to people like you and me - normal people, neither rational nor irrational. We are consumers, savers, investors, and managers - corporate managers, money managers, financial advisers, and all other financial professionals.
The book guides us to know our wants - including hope for riches, protection from poverty, caring for family, sincere social responsibility and high social status. It teaches financial facts and human behavior, including making cognitive and emotional shortcuts and avoiding cognitive and emotional errors such as overconfidence, hindsight, exaggerated fear, and unrealistic hope. And it guides us to banish ignorance,…
Wealth Odyssey is a summary work based on a 12-hour adult education course I taught for 10 years. It’s important to me to educate people through my 29 years in the profession (1994-2023), my focus has always been on helping people first understand that retirement means you’re wealthy enough not to work anymore – working is optional. You don’t need to be rich. Wealth is scalable for any income level and comes from foundation income and investments to supplement that foundation to support your desired lifestyle’s Standard of Individual Living (SOIL) for as long as you live. Your focus should be on your plan and apply a few concepts grounded in well researched evidence.
This is a wonderful book organized around four main concepts, each valuable in their own right: 1) The Theory of Investing; 2) The History of Investing; 3) The Psychology of Investing; and 3) The Business of Investing.
The latter, the business section makes it clear the stockbroker is not your friend, even though they’re friendly (by design). Having started my career on the sales side of the business, I quickly learned the agenda is less about the customer and more about product sales, even though I was also a Certified Financial Planner ProfessionalTM.
I dropped sales licenses and became a fee-only advisor and member of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) where the focus is on planning and helping clients achieve their wants and goals.
The principles in Bernstein’s book marry well with those of both Swedroe’s and Statman’s books (above) in the application of growing…
This new edition of the bestselling guide brings sophisticated investors-including institutional and individual investors, investment bankers, and those who want to follow in the footsteps of legends like John Bogle-up to date on ETFs, risk management, neuropsychological investing concepts, and more
Since its original publication two decades ago, The Four Pillars of Investing has become a classic guide for serious investors. The practicalities of investing, however, have changed dramatically, particularly pertaining to ETFs, and thinking has evolved about a host of key issues, such as lifecycle finance, the nature of risk, and basic finance and neuropsychological concepts. This new edition…
I’m fascinated by systems of thought and very interested in understanding how we can improve our ability to create a better society for all. I think the past makes a good laboratory for investigating these kinds of questions. I got interested in early modern economic theory while researching the English East India Company for my dissertation in the sociology department of Columbia University, which was a great place for historical and computational sociology. I now teach economic sociology and theory as a professor at Yale University, another institution with amazing strengths in history, data science, and computational methods.
This is a serious scholarly investigation of the origin and eventual triumph of the efficient market hypothesis. Polillo is very smart and the theoretical sophistication high. It combines a thorough history with some extremely interesting ideas about thought, culture, and social processes fleshed out with several different methods of analysis and interpretation.
The Ascent of Market Efficiency weaves together historical narrative and quantitative bibliometric data to detail the path financial economists took in order to form one of the central theories of financial economics-the influential efficient-market hypothesis-which states that the behavior of financial markets is unpredictable.
As the notorious quip goes, a blindfolded monkey would do better than a group of experts in selecting a portfolio of securities, simply by throwing darts at the financial pages of a newspaper. How did such a hypothesis come to be so influential in the field of financial economics? How did financial economists turn a lack…
Hi, I’m Neil. We need to live our tiny, precious lives with intention. I write about failure, resilience, happiness, trust, and gratitude. I’m the New York Times bestselling author of 10 books and journals that have sold over 2,000,000 copies and spent over 200 weeks on bestseller lists, including The Happiness Equation, Two-Minute Mornings, and You Are Awesome. I host the award-winning, ad-free, sponsor-free podcast 3 Books, where I’m on a 22-year quest to uncover the 1000 most formative books in the world. Guests include Brené Brown, Quentin Tarantino, and David Sedaris. I give over 50 keynote speeches a year at places like Harvard, SXSW, and Microsoft.
If I were teaching a course on life, this would be a mandatory textbook. Talib defines black swan events as events that 1) are disproportionately huge, 2) cannot be predicted, and 3) are mistakenly explained in retrospect with hindsight and fallacies.
This book helped me leave my corporate job and strike out on my own. Why? To help unroll the canvas of myself and my life, so I was more exposed to black swan events, leading me to write more books and have more unlikely, amazing experiences.
The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.”
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions…
I am a historian of education and twentieth-century U.S. history. Public schooling has been transformative for me, opening up a world of opportunities, but I know many others are not nearly so lucky. This has shaped my interest in the history of public schooling, including its promise of democracy and opportunity and the too-often reality of the way it replicates and deepens social and economic inequalities. I think history helps us understand our world, including to see the roots of inequality we live with today and to think about how we might build a more equitable system.
I love this book because it takes what we largely take for granted—local property tax and the educational inequality it produces—and shows how and why this developed over time and whose interests it has served. While we have tended to assume that funding inequality is the unfortunate byproduct of a long attachment to localism, this book explores how, in California, the state moved from centralized and more equitable funding to more localized and unequal funding through the political lobbying of the elites who benefited.
Taking unequal funding seriously as a deliberate project and a cornerstone for other kinds of social and economic inequalities makes us rethink many aspects of educational inequality we live with today. This book consequently says profound things about the history of American education and educational inequality, past and present.
In Dividing the Public, Matthew Gardner Kelly takes aim at the racial and economic disparities that characterize public education funding in the United States. With California as his focus, Kelly illustrates that the use of local taxes to fund public education was never an inadvertent or de facto product of past practices, but an intentional decision adopted in place of well-known alternatives during the Progressive Era, against past precedent and principle in several states.
From efforts to convert expropriated Indigenous and Mexican land into common school funding in the 1850s, to reforms that directed state aid to expanding white suburbs…
My father was the child of poor New York emigrants who, like our Ireland-born subject, Paul O’Dwyer, made his way into the American middle class through education, hard work, the beneficial effects of the New Deal, and the impact of labor organizing. All of these had the added benefit of restraining the tides of economic inequality and easing the galling undertow of racism. As American society retreated in my adult lifetime into rank nativism, political race-baiting, and an ever-widening gulf between the very rich and everyone else, I was attracted to the idea of taking the measure of a lawyer-activist-politician in New York in the 20th century, Paul O’Dwyer.
One of O’Dwyer’s early prominent battles for the First Amendment and civil rights occurred when he represented families evicted for opposing a racial color line in the selection of tenants of MetLife’s Stuyvesant Town in lower Manhattan, built with assistance from the La Guardia administration.
Through Bagli’s carefully researched history of this watershed battle over the authority of a private landlord to bar African Americans, he explains that O’Dwyer’s involvement in the case on behalf of progressive tenants helped pave the way for Metlife to build the smaller Riverton housing development in Harlem as a concession to critics. Over time, city and state laws would make housing discrimination illegal.
A veteran New York Times reporter dissects the most spectacular failure in real estate history
Real estate giant Tishman Speyer and its partner, BlackRock, lost billions of dollars when their much-vaunted purchase of Stuyvesant Town–Peter Cooper Village in New York City failed to deliver the expected profits. But how did Tishman Speyer walk away from the deal unscathed, while others took the financial hit—and MetLife scored a $3 billion profit?
Illuminating the world of big real estate the way Too Big to Fail did for banks, Other People’s Money is a riveting account of politics, high finance, and the hubris…
In the early 2000s, I noticed that lots of good American jobs were being lost to China. I was taught in college economics that trade was always win-win and that the government should stay out of the economy. I started reading the literature and found a number of flaws with these free trade and extreme free-market doctrines. The flaws were there in plain sight, but US trade economists, with vanishingly few exceptions, were ignoring them. Not only were the costs to our economy and our workers enormous, but the frustration of American workers with 30 years of failed promises by both parties has made our politics angrier and more divisive.
When I was an investment banker in the 80s and early 90s, the prevailing mantra was that what was good for Wall Street was good for the country. Nevertheless, I wondered whether slicing and dicing mortgages into different classes of derivatives and selling them to other financial institutions actually added value to the real economy.
This book made it clear to me that it does not and shows how the overgrowth of the financial sector—rising from four to five percent of GDP in the 1970s to over eight percent in the 2000s—caused the Great Recession of 2008. This explosion of debt was used almost exclusively to buy existing assets, thus crowding out lending for plant, equipment, and research.
The Recession is over, but financialization, a powerful and independent factor undermining US industrial policy, continues unchecked.
"A well-told exploration of why our current economy is leaving too many behind." —The New York Times
In looking at the forces that shaped the 2016 presidential election, one thing is clear: much of the population believes that our economic system is rigged to enrich the privileged elites at the expense of hard-working Americans. This is a belief held equally on both sides of political spectrum, and it seems only to be gaining momentum.
A key reason, says Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar, is the fact that Wall Street is no longer…
I’m a Swiss researcher and university professor who applies mathematics and psychology to build quantitative models for financial decision-making. Most of my scientific contributions belong to a field of research called behavioral finance, that is, the study of how psychology affects financial decisions. I love mathematics, and I am fascinated by its ability to describe complex mechanisms, including those that generate human behavior.
The book was, for me, an inspiring journey and an enriching learning experience. While conventional behavioral finance tends to analyze deviations from rationality within economic decisions, this book diverges, offering a holistic behavioral framework.
I like that the book views individuals not merely as economic agents but as complete beings, with financial well-being acting as a gauge for overall life prosperity. I believe that Prof. Statman's third generation of behavioral finance represents a paradigm shift towards a constructive scientific approach. I fully share its primary objective to empower individuals in their pursuit of personal fulfillment and satisfaction.
Unravel the complex relationship between finances and life well-being
In A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance, Professor Meir Statman, established thought leader in behavioral finance, explores how life well-being, the overarching aim of individuals in the third generation of behavioral finance, is underpinned by financial well-being, and how life well-being extends beyond financial well-being to family, friendship, religion, health, work, and education.
Combining recent scientific findings by scholars in finance, economics, law, medicine, psychology, and sociology with real-life stories at the intersection of finances and life, this book allows readers to clearly see how finances are…
