William Ophuls served as a Foreign Service Officer in Washington, Abidjan, and Tokyo before receiving a PhD in political science from Yale University in 1973. His Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity published in 1977 laid bare the ecological, social, and political challenges confronting modern industrial civilization. It was honored by the Kammerer and Sprout awards. After teaching briefly at Northwestern University, he became an independent scholar and author. He has since published a number of works extending and deepening his original argument, most prominently Requiem for Modern Politics in 1997, Plato’s Revenge: Politics in the Age of Ecology in 2011, and Immoderate Greatness: Why Civilizations Fail in 2013.
The model still shows, even more starkly than in the 1972 original, that industrial civilization is headed for overshoot followed by collapse to some lower level of complexity in the very near future. The model has proven to be robust: the original base run has tracked real-world curves quite closely. Don’t be put off by its technicality. The model is not that hard to understand—and, once understood, the implacability of its conclusions will appear inescapable.
Groundbreaking call to action by Donella Meadows, the bestselling author of Thinking in Systems!
Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse the Guardian
The updated edition of the groundbreaking classic that kickstarted the movement for environmental and ecological reform!
Perfect for fans of The Uninhabitable Earth and There is No Planet B
It is no unknown fact that at the present rate of climate change, population growth and capitalistic expansion, we are over-exceeding our planet's resources. We're stretched pretty thin and if we continue at the present rate we'll soon be headed towards irreversible consequences as…
Tainter makes a powerful and almost irrefutable case for complexity as the key to understanding both the rise and the fall of civilizations. In essence, complexity builds and builds until it is no longer manageable, so collapse ensues. That Tainter does not sufficiently appreciate the role that ecological limits, physical constraints, moral decline, and practical bungling can also play in the process does not detract from the power and utility of his argument. For these latter factors, see my own Immoderate Greatness.
Any explanation of political collapse carries lessons not just for the study of ancient societies, but for the members of all complex societies in both the present and future. Dr Tainter describes nearly two dozen cases of collapse and reviews more than 2000 years of explanations. He then develops a new and far-reaching theory that accounts for collapse among diverse kinds of societies, evaluating his model and clarifying the processes of disintegration by detailed studies of the Roman, Mayan and Chacoan collapses.
Why have we ignored innumerable warnings and blatant indications of trouble ahead, to the point that normally conservative scientists have begun to throw around words like “catastrophe” and “extinction”? Tuchman has a big part of the answer: human beings, even very well educated and well informed human beings, are too often “woodenheaded”—that is they obstinately persist in their folly and delusion until catastrophe descends.
Pulitzer Prize–winning historian Barbara W. Tuchman, author of the World War I masterpiece The Guns of August, grapples with her boldest subject: the pervasive presence, through the ages, of failure, mismanagement, and delusion in government.
Drawing on a comprehensive array of examples, from Montezuma’s senseless surrender of his empire in 1520 to Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor, Barbara W. Tuchman defines folly as the pursuit by government of policies contrary to their own interests, despite the availability of feasible alternatives. In brilliant detail, Tuchman illuminates four decisive turning points in history that illustrate the very heights of folly: the Trojan…
Same author, but a very different book. This one chronicles a dreadful time of troubles in Europe, an age when for various reasons everything fell apart. As we will relatively soon be entering our own time of troubles—an age of mere anarchy and passionate intensity in which the existing order is overturned—Tuchman’s account may constitute a forewarning that will help us to be forearmed for living in much more challenging circumstances.
The fourteenth century was a time of fabled crusades and chivalry, glittering cathedrals and grand castles. It was also a time of ferocity and spiritual agony, a world of chaos and the plague.
Here, Barbara Tuchman masterfully reveals the two contradictory images of the age, examining the great rhythms of history and the grain and texture of domestic life as it was lived: what childhood was like; what marriage meant; how money, taxes and war dominated the lives of serf, noble and clergy alike.
Granting her subjects their loyalties, treacheries and guilty passions, Tuchman recreates the lives of proud cardinals,…
The classic description of how politics is practiced rather than how it ought to be practiced. Forget the caricature: the work is the distilled wisdom of an astute participant-observer of politics as it was practiced during a time of troubles. Since that is what our future holds, it might be good to know what the rules are. Machiavelli is quite abstract and speaks in aphorisms and generalities, so for a felt sense of what life is like when “the strong do what they can” see Thucydides’s History of the Peloponnesian War.
Here is the world's most famous master plan for seizing and holding power. Astonishing in its candor The Prince even today remains a disturbingly realistic and prophetic work on what it takes to be a prince . . . a king . . . a president. When, in 1512, Machiavelli was removed from his post in his beloved Florence, he resolved to set down a treatise on leadership that was practical, not idealistic. In The Prince he envisioned would be unencumbered by ordinary ethical and moral values; his prince would be man and beast, fox and lion. Today, this small…
Innumerable warnings, growing increasingly dire as the years have rolled by, have failed to motivate peoples and nations to take the emerging ecological crisis as seriously as it warrants. What is worse, they have chosen exactly the wrong strategy for dealing with the crisis: instead of remodeling their societies and economies in accordance with ecological imperatives, they are trying to maintain business as usual by substituting solar electricity for fossil fuels. But refitting the Titanic with batteries, even if it were possible at this late date, will not avoid ecological shipwreck.
As a result, we stand on the precipice of radical change, change that threatens to end both the modern way of life and the long period of relative peace since the end of World War II. This work explores the limitations of the human mind that have prevented timely human action and reveals the bleak landscape of the future that our failure to act has now made all but inevitable.
She keeps her head down and cleans up messes. When the body count starts rising, will trying to make a living get her flushed?
Julia Xero is stuck in survival mode. After losing the only person she loved, the introverted orphan longs to escape her toxic employment for the zen of crime and trauma scene decontamination. But when she lands her dream job and is called to a bloody rooftop with a decapitated corpse, she’s horrified to come face to face with an otherworldly shark-toothed assassin.
Furious to learn she’s been enlisted by a clandestine race of beings against her…
"Be prepared for a long night of reading as the story unfolds. The end will leave you wanting more." - Goodreads Reviewer
She keeps her head down and cleans up messes. When the body count starts rising, will trying to make a living get her flushed?
Julia Xero is stuck in survival mode. After losing the only person she loved, the introverted orphan longs to escape her toxic employment for the zen of crime and trauma scene decontamination. But when she lands her dream job and is called to a bloody rooftop with a decapitated corpse, she’s horrified to come…
