The most recommended books on business cycles

This was an exciting reading for me. I find a great connection with Akerlof and Shiller’s book Animal Spirits.

This book admits, that people might have some cognitive limitations and use simple forecasting rules in order to make decisions with resulting implications at the aggregate level. As a result, there is great potential for the emerging, yet undiscovered discipline of behavioral macroeconomics.

Personally, for me, revolutionary element is the combination of bounded rationality and willingness to learn from past mistakes and consequent switch to better rules. This book introduces special behavioral macroeconomic model based on the dynamics of endogenous animal spirits, in which case waves of optimism and pessimism are responsible for the business cycle itself.

I find especially interesting the part devoted to the discussion of how central banks should approach inflation targeting in behavioral models with animal spirits.

Co-author Ken Rogoff taught my PhD course in Global Economics while he was a visiting professor at NYU (from Princeton). We used Foundations of International Macroeconomics as our textbook; Ken was writing the book with Maurice Obstfeld. When I turned in a handful of pages to him with editorial corrections, he hired me to edit the rest of the book and a research paper for him! It caused quite a stir among my peers when Ken thanked me by name when the article was published (JEL, June 1996). This book traces eight hundred years of financial crises to demonstrate that they are, in fact, predictable. Economists and policymakers are taken by surprise only because they do not learn the lessons from one crisis to the next.

I read this wonderful book in the early 2000s when I had returned to Istanbul, Türkiye back from a professional position in the UK.

I was captivated by its description of the flora and fauna of our geography. I recall reading how the beloved chestnut trees of our region had made their way there from China. Braudel is an economic historian who is known to have placed physical and biological nature in the foreground of historical analysis. Thus, according to Braudel, nature is not merely space to be conquered or to be shaped by human desires.

Indeed, the organization of economic life in the Mediterranean was probably shaped by the diversity and difficulty of its geography as much as shaping it, as we argued in our article on Mediterranean business cycles published with Fabio Canova in Open Economies Review in 2013.   

Philippe Aghion has been one of the pioneers in the development of “Schumpeterian Growth Theory” to model the process of Creative Destruction” that drives technological innovation and economic growth. This is an accessible presentation of the dynamics of the model and the observable consequences in the real world.  

I have found it essential for teaching my course on Venture Capital and the Economics of Innovation.

More so than almost any other economist of his stature, Joseph Schumpeter appreciated the central importance of entrepreneurship to any proper understanding of economics. After all, Schumpeter was the academic who popularized (but did not actually coin) the term “creative destruction,” now synonymous with the disruptive but ultimately beneficial process of innovative entrepreneurship.  

In Business Cycles, among other topics, the Austrian-born economist explains how the entrepreneur, defined as an “individual who carries out innovations,” interacts with the capitalist, defined as “the one who bears the [financial] risk.” Their collaborative work lies at the core of what Schumpeter describes as economic “evolution,” impacting the business cycle and the lives of everyone in a capitalist society. First published in 1939, Schumpeter’s observations still resonate over 80 years later.

What was arguably the most important factor in driving the different views that business leaders had after 1981 about how they should run their companies? The best answer comes from the dramatically greater role that investors started to play.

Their interests were always different from those of the CEOs and business leaders. The notion that businesses were accountable to “stakeholders”–community, employees, customers, and investors–shifted sharply to the view that there was only one stakeholder: investors.

Why and how this happened is one of the most important stories of the 20th Century and beyond. 

This book comprises an edited compendium of investment reports from Marathon Investment Management, with three broad themes.

First, stock markets are about capitalism, not macroeconomics.

Second, successful investment requires an understanding of the relative size and composition of supply, demand, production, and consumption. You need to compare heterogeneity, fragmentation, and growth (positive or negative) on both sides of a company’s market.

Third, pay attention to the capital cycle. Seek out sectors from which investors’ capital and attention are being withdrawn, and be wary of sectors which are attracting increasing capital and attention.

This book treats a rich variety of weighty topics, global in scope. It lays bare the real insights that bubble up when economic history is subpoenaed to the bar of economic thinking. The famous British Disraeli said he only read biographies because biographies were life without theory. It helps to take a break from scholars whose thoughts are pinned down by the most recent theories. To study economics without theory, it is necessary to study economic history. Economic forecasters too often have a bias toward predicting a continuation of existing trends with small adjustments. Rostov’s long sweep of history shows that these forecasts may be overridden by long-term trends. This book contains a lot of meat—a great abundance of instructive explanations, intelligent comments, and practical conclusions. 

Take Hayek’s market economy as a Bohemian accordion orchestra.

As its instruments produce music, each elongates, pulls in air (analogous to money), and compresses, expresses air (money). Air-in (savings) is equal to air-out (investment). Fluctuating elongations and compressions are an essential feature of the orchestra (the economy).

For Hayek, interference with harmonious accordion (economic) activity infusing or restricting air (money) would spoil the music.

Economic fluctuations stem from preferences, spending for present enjoyment, or saving for future gains. Relative demands for end products or capital impact relative prices, costs, and returns, affecting savings/investment. Investment money, as IOUs, flies where returns are highest.

Hayek engages readers to prove that bank interventions’ tinkering with money is as capable of producing compassionate social outcomes as free individuals using their earnings as they wish.

This is a serious recommendation if you are to read my volumes. Why? Shapes and illustrations. I read this book as a kid and, as you might imagine, it was my favorite book. There is no better investment into our future than investing into the basic understanding of society and commerce. But, back to shapes. My own series includes a vast array of shapes and imagery to tell the story, from what to how to because to why.