Thinking in Bets

Certainty is a black-or-white concept, either zero or hundred percent; uncertainty is something between zero and hundred percent, and this grayness is a difficult concept. In the context of dealing with uncertainty and making better decisions, I find Annie Duke’s use of poker in Thinking in Bets clever for two reasons: (1) People can engage with the concept that winning or losing in a poker game is neither exact science nor pure luck. (2) Given that poker games are so different from our everyday reality, there is no danger that people would expect decision recipes for dummies. 

I never realized it, but purchasing a house is a bet. Sales negotiations and contracts are bets. Job and relocation decisions are bets. This fascinating book claims that even ordering the chicken and not steak is a bet. Yes, everything is a bet. Thinking in Bets helps us re-examine our view of the world, and enhance all facets of decision-making in our lives.

The author says that we are overly biased in our decision-making. We con ourselves into accepting our beliefs, whether or not they're even worthy of our trust. Worse, our biases invariably hamper our decision-making. And gosh, we're… show more.

This clever little book is a highly digestible introduction to some of the key ideas that psychologists have had about how humans make judgments and decisions, when people do well, and when we are prone to error. The ideas are engaged in the author’s domain of expertise, through a game that everyone can relate to: poker. The book shows how learning to be a better poker player is a microcosm of learning how to be a more effective decision maker so you can achieve your own goals, whatever they are.