The Signal and the Noise

This book, by Nate Silver of 538 fame, explains in a straightforward manner why so many predictions by “experts,” from weather forecasts to sports outcomes to election polling to economics, ultimately prove wrong.

It relates to understanding the “signal,” the underlying science that is often revealed through trends and patterns in data, relative to the “noise,” the random or unpredictable variations always present in data. Silver also explains the concept of conditional probability, probability when provided with some relevant information, in an unusually clear manner.

The book reads more like a casual conversation with the author, rather than a statistics… show more.

If you fancy yourself an expert in many fields but want to view those through the lens of statistics, this book is for you. From banking to baseball via climate change and poker, this book gives an insight into predictions and how they can go wrong. While Silver is rather dismissive of the frequentist approach in favour of Bayesian predictions, there is still much to admire in this book. It is a well-written, accessible, light read by a master of forecasting.