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Future Ready 1st Edition

by Steve Morlidge (Author)

4.6 36 ratings

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The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe.

It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.

Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:

What makes a good forecast?
What period should a forecast cover?
How frequently should it be updated?
What information should it contain?
What is the best way to produce a forecast?
How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?
How should a forecast be used?
How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?
How accurate does it need to be?
How should you deal with risk and uncertainty
What is the best way to organize a forecast process?
Do you need multiple forecasts?
What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?

Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.

Praise for Future Ready

"Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward"
—Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC

"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one"
—Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro

"A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement."
—Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting

"In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market."
—Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

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Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:

What makes a good forecast?
What period should a forecast cover?
How frequently should it be updated?
What information should it contain?
What is the best way to produce a forecast?
How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?
How should a forecast be used?
How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?
How accurate does it need to be?
How should you deal with risk and uncertainty
What is the best way to organize a forecast process?
Do you need multiple forecasts?
What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?
Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. It is also a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways to improve results.
"Future Ready is a very timely call to action, challenging readers to rethink the many myths and practical flaws which bedevil their current approaches to forecasting and presenting a clear and radical blueprint for future success." - Paul Baumann, Director of Finance and Investment, NHS London
"Studies continue to reveal that CFO teams around the globe have significant gaps in their planning and forecasting capabilities, exacerbated and exposed by the global recession. This book is a solutions-oriented approach to filling that gap." - Jeffrey C. Thomson, President and CEO, Institute of Management Accountants
"Provides a clear eyed analysis of an essential business process that many of us don't understand either as well or as in as much detail as we should. Moves beyond theory to the mechanics of designing and implementing a genuinely useful forecasting system." - Liz Doherty, CFO Brambles Ltd

From the Back Cover

Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:

What makes a good forecast?
What period should a forecast cover?
How frequently should it be updated?
What information should it contain?
What is the best way to produce a forecast?
How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?
How should a forecast be used?
How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?
How accurate does it need to be?
How should you deal with risk and uncertainty
What is the best way to organize a forecast process?
Do you need multiple forecasts?
What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?

Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. It is also a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways to improve results.

"Future Ready is a very timely call to action, challenging readers to rethink the many myths and practical flaws which bedevil their current approaches to forecasting and presenting a clear and radical blueprint for future success." - Paul Baumann, Director of Finance and Investment, NHS London

"Studies continue to reveal that CFO teams around the globe have significant gaps in their planning and forecasting capabilities, exacerbated and exposed by the global recession. This book is a solutions-oriented approach to filling that gap." - Jeffrey C. Thomson, President and CEO, Institute of Management Accountants

"Provides a clear eyed analysis of an essential business process that many of us don't understand either as well or as in as much detail as we should. Moves beyond theory to the mechanics of designing and implementing a genuinely useful forecasting system." - Liz Doherty, CFO Brambles Ltd

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley; 1st edition (November 27, 2009)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 358 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0470747056
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0470747056
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.31 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 1 x 9 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #1,375,500 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #504 in Business Planning & Forecasting (Books)
- #2,228 in Business Decision Making
- #3,135 in Decision-Making & Problem Solving

Customer Reviews:
4.6 36 ratings

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Steve Morlidge

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I have over 20 years of practical experience - in designing and running performance management systems in Unilever, including three years as the lead of a global change project. As a former chairman of the European Beyond Budgeting Round Table I now work as a management thinker, writer and speaker, drawing on my experience at the leading edge of performance management thought and practice. I like to describe myself as an 'anti consultant' as my aim is to help practitioners think and act for themselves and break their dependance on others.

Driving this is a personal obsession with understanding how organizations work, and can be made to work better for the benefit of the organisation, its customers and its shareholders. Just as important to me is the welfare of the people who work within organisations whose working life is rarely fulfilling and purposeful. This manifests itself in an interest in both the philosophy and science of social organisations as well as the implications for day to day practice and practioners.

I have five published books and I am currently working on two more.

I also serve on the editorial board of Foresight, a forecasting practitioner’s journal published by the International Institute of Forecasting to which I regularly contribute. I also cofounded CatchBull, a supplier of cutting edge forecasting performance management software.

On the academic side of things I am a visiting fellow at Cranfield University in the UK and I have a PhD from Hull Business School focusing on the application of systems concepts to the design of complex organisations. My first degree was a BA with honors, and am a qualified management accountant (CIMA).

I'm married to Sue and we have three grown children and live in the Surrey countryside, south of London.

Customer reviews

4.6 out of 5

36 global ratings

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Sandro Saitta

How to apply forecasting to existing businesses

Reviewed in the United States on February 25, 2013

Verified Purchase

If you are working on forecasting, you may be interested by the book from Steve Morlidge and Steve Player: Future Ready - How to master business forecasting. Whereas "Dance with Chance" is more about the limitations of forecasting, the present book is about the way to apply forecasting to existing businesses.

Let's be clear from the very beginning on the fact that this book is not about the technical aspect of forecasting. You will neither learn about forecasting techniques, nor about evaluation criteria. However, you will learn critical factors to successfully integrate forecasting into your company: purpose, time, models, measurement, risks and process.

The book explains critical concepts such as the difference between prediction and forecasting. Authors go further by describing the Cassandra paradox: "a perfect prediction is perfectly useless". Future Ready is also full of forecasting examples and case studies.

Morlidge and Player put the emphasis on key issues of implementing forecasting in a company and one can see their experience in the domain. Authors provide a list of symptoms and issues with forecasting. For example, managers may believe too deeply in forecasting. To be noted an excellent and comprehensive glossary at the end of the book.

To conclude, Future Ready is a perfect complement to a more technical forecasting book. It will teach you what experience usually bring to you: how to avoid pitfalls. It is thus an inevitable resource for anyone implied in forecasting.

4 people found this helpful

Helpful

Michael Rand

A must-have book for anyone interested in organizational forecasting

Reviewed in the United States on January 20, 2016

Verified Purchase

I worked in large company FP&A (financial planning & analysis) for a good part of my career. I've often found business forecasting books to be simplistic and fairly antiquated rehashes of standard management accounting textbook budgeting processes.

Not this book. I find myself nodding along to almost every page as these guys lay out in a very clear manner a lot of the hard-earned lessons I've spent years learning. Some of the gems in here:
* The difference between a budget, a forecast, and target, and a plan (this chapter is worth the price of the book alone);
* How to set up the forecasting process;
* How to build a rolling forecast (i.e. how frequently you should reforecast and how long your forecasting window should be);
* How to integrate multiple sources of information throughout your organization into one coherent forecast.

There are plenty of others.

I have hundreds of business books and this is one of the 2 or 3 I refer to repeatedly. This is really outstanding stuff.

4 people found this helpful

Helpful

Amazon Customer

Best Business Forecasting Book Ever

Reviewed in the United States on May 14, 2010

Verified Purchase

As someone who teaches the subject of forecasting, I have never seen a better book that describes how to integrate the design and capabilities of forecasting models with the actual practice of business management. This is both a conceptual work and valuable practical guidance. Readers are urged to think carefully about how forecasts will be used, and to design their models to avoid the numerous pitfalls and traps that the authors enumerate. Whether you are constructing your own forecast model, or using a commercial variety, this book will help to make your choices explicit concerning the level of detail needed, the right frequency, and coordinating realistic forecast horizons with your own industry's and organization's planning capabilities and needs. This book is a solid work from true experts.
Paul Fogel

12 people found this helpful

Helpful

Philip Campbell

This book is fantastic

Reviewed in the United States on December 19, 2011

Verified Purchase

Future Ready was a great read. Full of very specific information about how to turn financial forecasts into a tool that helps you run a better business. As a financial guy, it has always shocked me how many otherwise smart entrepreneurs and executives don't insist on having financial projections (down to the cash flow level) as part of their approach to managing and growing their business. Kind of like strapping a blindfold on when you get into your car to drive to the office in the morning - not a smart idea!

You will love the book. Tons of experience and wisdom in there to help you use forecasts wisely.

3 people found this helpful

Helpful

Aldworth

COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER

Reviewed in the United States on February 5, 2016

Verified Purchase

This book could have been a lot better. .I was hoping for a book about the principles of business forecasting supported by many case studies from the authors' personal experience , and technical content dealing with integration of economics , maths , stats and management accounting techniques for forecasting. Instead this book tries to deal with the philosophy of forecasting , not with forecasting itself. You will find unjustified personal opinions , absurd generalisations , some very silly examples.
I went through it twice , once fast , once slowly. It did NOT REALLY help me to master business forecasting.

One person found this helpful

Helpful

Dimitar Yordanov Mihaylov

Best book

Reviewed in the United States on December 7, 2018

Verified Purchase

One of the best written books for forecasting.

Helpful

David Siegel

An essential tool for corporate planners

Reviewed in the United States on March 14, 2015

Verified Purchase

This is a very well written and important book for corporate planners. I highly recommend it if you want your company to be more agile.

Helpful

Roman Hinka

Great insight into forecasting

Reviewed in the United States on January 22, 2013

Verified Purchase

I like the systematic approch in the book. It covers organisational as well as technical issues of forecating. Furthermore, it is plainly written.

Helpful

Top reviews from other countries

Esther L. Oberbeck

Clarity of advice

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 26, 2010

Verified Purchase

Excellent in showing the building blocks of good forecasting and budgeting processes in large or small organisations.

The authors cover with great clarity the rationale for forecasting, its challenges, definitions and offer useful advice in how to design the forecasting, target setting and budgeting processes of businesses and organisations in different sectors by providing actionable rules and tools.

Recommended for those looking to either re-design or improve their organisations' planning processes.

N.B. Some typos left unchecked but nothing major.

One person found this helpful

Tinfoil Hatter

Good points but rattles on

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 7, 2017

Verified Purchase

I am a small business owner. I have recently discovered the need to forecast to grow the business and this book is good food for thought. However, like a lot of business books, in an effort (I suppose) to increase the sale price of the book (or to write a book at all), the author has really laboured his points. There are some good examples from real businesses but also an awful lot of waffle to fill space including sailing anecdotes, details of the author's shower and Greek mythology.

One person found this helpful

Ewan Nicolson

Food for thought

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 30, 2013

Verified Purchase

Very good. There are better places to get an overview of the practical techniques of forecasting, but this book encourages you to step back and think about why you are forecasting. I found that very helpful, and I ended up changing my approach slightly.

One person found this helpful

Ian Ross

Five Stars

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on July 15, 2015

Verified Purchase

A great book that has changed my view of traditional budgeting

Biscuit Tin

I must read it one day. Obviously it didn't ...

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 5, 2014

Verified Purchase