With two major wars underway in different parts of the world, and the probability of other wars in other regions higher than any of us would like, fewer books are more timely and relevant than Christopher Blattman’s, “Why We Fight.” Mr. Blattman’s is quick to admonish us not to forget the central message of his book: as the data through history illustrate, “war is the exception, not the rule.” The “pull of peace” has dominated history, Blattman reminds us, much more than the brutality of war.
Properly warned, Blattman gets down to the business of war. He provides readers with a fascinating analysis of why wars erupt when they do. He employs the tools of game theory extensively, especially insofar as it involves bargaining and the space available to reach bargains. He shows how rivals often think of the spoils of war, using pies to illustrate the availability of bargaining space. In my view, the greatest asset of this book is one that vastly expands the book’s application. Specifically, Blattman has done us a great service showing how the factors at play between states also apply to gang warfare within urban areas and across regions.
The central message is that war, for the most part, entails important calculations under conditions of significant uncertainty. The factors Blattman isolates as often antecedent to war include:
Unchecked interests. Political leaders may impose the costs of war on others, while remain shielded from the tragedy of war.
Intangible incentives. Individuals to can convince themselves that justice, ideological aspirations or other intangible “benefits” can only be obtained through the prolonged conflict that is war.
Uncertainty. A lack if knowledge of the other side’s capabilities and determination can lead political decision-makers to abandon caution and pursue conflict.
Commitment problems. These can sometimes be construed as the inability to trust one’s opponents to honor agreements, but it may also reflect not so much trust or the lack thereof, but the inability to structure conflict resolutions with an effective mix of incentives for upholding, and disincentives for abandoning agreements.
Misperceptions. Adversaries are likely to be overly confident and prone to demonize one another.
The difficulty with Blattman’s approach is that the factors he has isolated as conducive to conflict are neither mutually exclusive, nor weighted by importance (defined, for example, as the probability of culminating in war). Then again, these criticisms are part of a larger problem; the problem of defining exactly what we want from a theory of modern warfare and whether, any given theory, can satisfy those aspirations. All that aside, Christopher Blattman’s book is very much worth reading and pondering. No better time for both.
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Popular Highlights in this book
This implies something you might find counterintuitive: often, the more destructive our weapons, the easier it should be to find peace.Highlighted by 53 Kindle readers- Fourth is something called a commitment problem. Usually, when your rival grows powerful, your best option is to concede something. But what if you’re warned of your opponent’s rise in advance? You can strike now, while you’re still strong, and avert your decline.Highlighted by 51 Kindle readers
- War bias comes about when the people who decide whether or not to launch a conflict have a set of risks and rewards different from the society they supposedly represent. In other words, when the leadership’s private incentives differ from the public interest.Highlighted by 48 Kindle readers
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JB - Ottawa
Insightful, compelling reading with a personal touch.
Reviewed in Canada on May 3, 2022
