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Market Madness: A Century of Oil Panics, Crises, and Crashes First Edition

by Blake C. Clayton (Author)
3.8 3.8 out of 5 stars 17 ratings
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Stock market booms are cause for celebration. But when oil prices soar because supplies are failing to keep up with demand, the response is nearly always apocalyptic. Predictions of the end of oil can create anxiety on Wall Street and in Washington, stoking fears that production has hit a ceiling and prices will rise in perpetuity. Yet these dire visions have always proven wrong.

Market Madness is the story of four waves of American anxiety over the last 100 years about a looming end to oil reserves. Their sweeping pattern-as large price increases lead to widespread shortage fears that eventually dissipate when oil production rises again and prices moderate-has defined the wild price swings in the oil market down to the present day.

Blake Clayton, a Wall Street stock analyst and adjunct fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, makes the case for the need for better information, communication and transparency. While these measures will not eliminate volatility and unpredictability completely, they would mitigate unnecessary price spikes and improve both investor and government decision-making.

Market Madness is the first study to employ Nobel Laureate economist Robert Shiller's "new era economics" beyond the markets to which he famously applied it-the 1990s dot-com equity market and the mid-2000s housing market-in order to better understand the dynamics of speculative bubbles and irrationality in the commodities markets. In so doing, it breaks new ground in illuminating how mass beliefs about the future of a vital asset like oil take shape and what the future of energy may hold.
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Previous page
  1. ISBN-10
    0199990050
  2. ISBN-13
    978-0199990054
  3. Edition
    First Edition
  4. Publisher
    Oxford University Press
  5. Publication date
    February 2, 2015
  6. Language
    English
  7. Dimensions
    9.3 x 0.9 x 6.2 inches
  8. Print length
    248 pages
  9. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Book Description

A historical analysis of unfounded oil panics in the United States and an argument for preventing needless oil market panics in the future

About the Author

Blake Clayton is a stock analyst at Citigroup in New York, where he covers oil and gas companies and master limited partnerships. Prior to joining Citigroup, Dr. Clayton was a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he currently serves as an adjunct fellow on energy. Dr. Clayton received a doctorate from Oxford University. The recipient of the University of Chicago Endowed Fellowship, he holds dual master's degrees from the University of Chicago and Cambridge University.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Oxford University Press; First Edition (February 2, 2015)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 248 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0199990050
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0199990054
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.01 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 9.3 x 0.9 x 6.2 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    3.8 3.8 out of 5 stars 17 ratings

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Blake C. Clayton

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Customer reviews

3.8 out of 5 stars
3.8 out of 5
17 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Marc
4.0 out of 5 stars Understand how oil world works
Reviewed in the United States on April 9, 2015
Verified Purchase
After finishing the book I could trace some relevant parallels between what had happened in the past and the actual situation ... for me thats the most important thing I got from this book . The author clearly explains how the major oil crisis developed and how they evolved ... A very good read , I'm glad I bought this one .
3 people found this helpful
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John J
5.0 out of 5 stars This is an important book for anyone interested in financial ...
Reviewed in the United States on December 3, 2014
Verified Purchase
This is an important book for anyone interested in financial markets, the future price of petrol, or the current US energy production renaissance. Dr. Clayton is a very rare combination of academic and practitioner, not to mention a clever writer. He's definitely a thought leader and influencer to follow.

"Market Madness" is an enjoyable and informative read.
8 people found this helpful
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Michael
3.0 out of 5 stars interesting
Reviewed in the United States on April 30, 2016
Verified Purchase
Important thought, horse transportation did not end due to lack of horses. Important to remember history and relationship with today.
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E. Cresswell
4.0 out of 5 stars Madness of Crowds of Experts
Reviewed in the United States on August 10, 2015
Verified Purchase
Interesting and well documented, but I felt the discussions of each of the four episodes of madness was so similar that what was no doubt original research seemed repetitive.
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Michael Roberson
5.0 out of 5 stars Fascinating and Timely
Reviewed in the United States on February 23, 2015
Verified Purchase
Fascinating an timely look at 'Peak Oil' since the early 1900s. For readers of Daniel Yergin, a great 'drilling down' to critical periods in Oil & Gas markets.
One person found this helpful
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Kindle Customer annoyed
1.0 out of 5 stars Disssapointing, look for a book written by a better author
Reviewed in the United States on April 7, 2015
Verified Purchase
This book has an interesting topic, but the writing is often times confused with wandering prose. Even worse than the 'blog' like lack of writing skill is the apparent total lack of editorial review! There are so many errors in this book, e.g. "..Sir John Brown Chairman of Royal Dutch Shell.." that you'd be an idiot to buy it for information purposes. Too bad, with just a little more planning and investment in time fact checking and editing this could be an interesting read on a timely topic.
2 people found this helpful
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Phillip Bashara Shamas
4.0 out of 5 stars It could be longer and give a great in-depth analysis
Reviewed in the United States on May 10, 2015
Verified Purchase
This is an interesting read. It could be longer and give a great in-depth analysis, yet overall it is a great read!
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Brian D. Labatte
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in the United States on February 6, 2017
Verified Purchase
Really interesting perspective that should be used in any pre- or postmortem analysis.
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Top reviews from other countries

Mandrake
4.0 out of 5 stars A history of the oil market and our anxieties over "Peak Oil"
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 17, 2016
Verified Purchase
This book is primarily a history of "peak oil". It describes how each period of high oil prices, from the late 19th century on, has been accompanied by anxiety over depletion of the world's oil reserves. Yet in each case high prices created the incentives to discover new oil sources, or develop techniques to better exploit old ones, with the result that sufficient new oil supplies have come onto the market to more than meet demand.

His main points are:

(1) Hysteria over the over-exploitation of a finite resource leading to falling oil supplies is not new. One amusing anecdote is how in 1859 the future tycoon Andrew Carnegie was sure that the Pennsylvania oil rush could not last and so stored the oil from his new well in the expectation that prices would soon have to rise. They didn't and he had to cut his losses and sell. In his view "Peak Oil" is a story that investors tell themselves to explain high oil prices, when the actual cause of high oil prices is years of under-investment.

(2) Markets work. It may take some time but the oil market eventually re-balances itself. In the long term high oil prices dampen demand and stimulate new supply. However, this takes time because finding, drilling and extracting oil from new wells takes time. In his view it can take up to a decade for the oil market to re-balance.

(3) The oil market is deeply dysfunctional. Only a small part of the oil market is run on commercial lines. OPEC has the bulk of the world's resources, but they do not try to maximise their output but rather to keep the price high by restricting their output. As a result the smaller commercial sector has the job of re-balancing the market, with the result that re-balancing takes much longer than it should. He states that the countries with 75% of the world's proven oil reserves use only 15% of its rigs.

Overall, I thought that this book made some good points, but laboured the point about how "Peak Oil" was a recurring myth. The majority of the book was a history of oil price cycles, but without the depth of Daniel Yergin's The Prize. Having made its point the book did not have to reiterate it quite so often. Also, there was no discussion of the short-term dynamics of the oil price and how feed-back loops can actually exacerbate market imbalances in the short-term, which seemed a missed opportunity. I was convinced by the central message about Peak Oil being a myth, but would have liked more.
One person found this helpful
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