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How Long Will South Africa Survive?: The Looming Crisis Hardcover – November 1, 2015

by R.W. Johnson (Author)
4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 676 ratings
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In 1977, Johnson's best selling How Long Will South Africa Survive? offered a controversial and highly original analysis of the survival prospects of apartheid. Now, after more than two decades of the ANC in government, he believes the question must be posed again. "The big question about ANC rule," Johnson writes, "is whether African nationalism would be able to cope with the challenges of running a modern industrial economy. Twenty years of ANC rule have shown conclusively that the party is hopelessly ill equipped for this task. Indeed, everything suggests that South Africa under the ANC is fast slipping backward and that even the survival of South Africa as a unitary state cannot be taken for granted. The fundamental reason why the question of regime change has to be posed is that it is now clear that South Africa can either choose to have an ANC government or it can have a modern industrial economy. It cannot have both."
Previous page
  1. Print length
    288 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Hurst
  4. Publication date
    November 1, 2015
  5. Dimensions
    8.7 x 0.9 x 5.7 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    9781849045599
  7. ISBN-13
    978-1849045599
  8. See all details
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Amazon First Reads | Editors' picks at exclusive prices

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Well-written and well argued, his book is at its best describing the eye-watering corruption, nepotism and gang-violence that seem to link powerful officials in Zuma's home province of KwaZulu-Natal to the wider ANC. ... That South Africa's black leaders appear to have fulfilled the worst predictions of their white supremacist predecessors makes uncomfortable reading. What surprises Johnson is how quickly they managed to do it." -- The Times

"A provocative polemic ... produces a devastating charge sheet against the ANC" --The Sunday Times

"In 1977, Johnson was taking stock of where the apartheid state stood in relation to its likely end, and his prediction was more-or-less correct: 15 years later, it was officially dead, and South Africa had a new, democratically elected government. In the new nostradamic book, Johnson seems to be talking about a similar time frame, perhaps shortened to a decade or so, but in interviews he has given a much shorter period until we hit the wall, saying South Africa has a mere two years before it has to go begging to the International Monetary Fund for a bail-out. ... Johnson has a great polemical gift ... punchy" -- Mail & Guardian (SA)

"Johnson's newest book speaks to the corruption that now riddles the country's body politic. As a result, it is increasingly up to the country's politicians, economic and business leaders and others to explain how they, if they were in charge, would arrest the decay and reverse the process. The country clearly wants to hear such things and is increasingly hungry for solid answers." -- Daily Maverick (SA)

"This book will undoubtedly be met with outrage among South Africa's political and intellectual elite. If so, it will not be because of any great deficiencies in the text, but because of the grip of ideology on the country's elite. By the same token, it will be hailed by some people in opposition circles simply because of the vigour with which it criticises not only South Africa's current government, but the entire history of the ANC since the late 1950s, as well as for its devastating critique of African nationalism more generally." -- Professor Stephen Ellis, Free University of Amsterdam, author of External Mission: The ANC in Exile, 1960-90

Book Description

Controversial analysis of South Africa's political future by a seasoned expert

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ 1849045593
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Hurst (November 1, 2015)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 288 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 9781849045599
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1849045599
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.1 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 8.7 x 0.9 x 5.7 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 676 ratings

Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars
4.3 out of 5
676 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars The truth about SA is difficult to digest.
Reviewed in the United States on April 8, 2016
Verified Purchase
RW Johnson's coverage and analysis of South Africa's future path is scary and yet each event in our nation further leads to his views being validated.

I always considered myself an optimist, and someone who can only judge a situation based on objective views. Reading each chapter felt more and more like an awakening to the realities of the path that SA is on.

His analysis of the luck that benefitted the Apartheid government through its gold gamble was eye-opening. His analysis of the political landscape is also exceptional and well researched.

While seemingly biased against the ANC, any reader could be forgiven for that conclusion, but realizing the logic behind his arguments as being immeasurably sensible further causes stomach churning as the truth of SA's future is painful to digest. One hopes he is wrong.

While the black population deserve no attack for its failure to produce a competitive black intelligentsia, primarily based on lack of opportunities under apartheid, one has to wonder how long it would take for someone to come out and debate against the views in this book using pure fact - especially without the word racist.

I hope there is a credible response to this book proving the author wrong, but I am firmly of the view that placing more hopes and dreams on a future in South Africa will be a pointless and painful exercise.

Every aspect of public service is failing miserably, crime is at levels where we now discuss what method we got held up as if it is a badge of honor. Life has no value anymore in SA, and the rand falling further signifies this.

The middle class inflation is tied more to the currency devaluation given the imported nature of our lifestyles, and expensive private schools are now the only place to guarantee a child's future education. How can anyone expect to grow wealth under such conditions?

The rainbow nation dream continues to bleed on the back of a sustained brain drain as more and more people take stock of the value of their lives being worth far more than a cellphone.

Politicians continue to show their true colors of being the scum of the nation with complete disregard for securing the nations future, rather aiming to secure their own futures (in the short-term).

Blacks may be highly offended by the analysis of the tribalistic nature of the politics, but no credible opinions have been provided to the contrary.

An eye-opening analysis on how everyone's lives are affected by governments actions.
2 people found this helpful
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Boerseun
4.0 out of 5 stars An excellent barometer
Reviewed in the United States on April 9, 2016
Verified Purchase
This Book is well researched and extremely factual. In my personal case it was also a learning curve and a revelation because I could not understand the "suddenness" of the transformation in 1994 but the link to international money makes perfect sense and the lack of knowledge was that one always thought that SA was an island and totally isolated. Politically it was but economically it was interlinked - that part I could not understand 25 years ago.
The other part I picked up on was Mandela was not always the saint that everyone says he is and as a holy grail of sorts it was interesting to see the author state the facts and the actual role that Mandela had in the ascendancy of Zuma. This book is a mush have for the many thinkers and in view of Africa's not so nice Post Colonial history it is an imperative barometer to have to make plans. In my case they are made but not cemented and the cementing of my plans will now happen as a result of this book.
Lastly but not least and this is just an observation is that I have worked all over Africa for the past 25 years and have seen South Africa, a jewel in many respects fall into an abyss it can hardly get out of and for that part so has MOST other African countries. Botswana is the only exception so how one reads the old racial arguments is pretty much not for this forum but my thoughts in this matter are very clear irrespective of the arguments used in the book. Also being a 100% fluent African Linguist of several African languages since a young age has made me realize that there are vast differences between African and Western thoughts of doing and executing things. The African way with nepotism, corruption and state sponsored robbery is not the ideal that I ascribe to or want my children to be part of. So Adios Africa it is for me.
2 people found this helpful
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Wise Guy
5.0 out of 5 stars Sobering.
Reviewed in the United States on December 1, 2015
Verified Purchase
This book accurately expresses the sentiments of most educated South Africans - like it or not.
The ANC has become an amoral and shameless political organisation that is systematically destroying one of the most beautiful and most endowed country in the world through greed and corruption. As a result, I fear that an African Spring is inevitable; aided and abetted by the EFF.
It is tragic that the aspirations of its disadvantaged blacks have been destroyed with such recklessness. The number one sin of the ANC is the deterioration of our education system despite adequate funding. Why it is tolerated by the masses is beyond comprehension.
Our only hope is that the ANC will slowly loose the vote in the main urban areas and will fade away.
Unfortunately, an even bigger threat has arisen with the EFF. It is an opportunistic party that is riding the wave of discontent of the masses. It is led by uneducated thugs who, in their own right, have never contributed one cent to the economy, commencing with Julius Malema. Mugabe and Chavez are his role models!
It is difficult to be optimistic with such dark clouds overhead and I pray that RWJ and the educated minority of South Africans are wrong in our assessment of our social, political and economic future.
9 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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Mobelix
5.0 out of 5 stars Sobering
Reviewed in Canada on May 29, 2015
Verified Purchase
A sobering and useful review of the dashing of hopes for what was the most promising example for a future Africa. While no surprise for those of us who have followed events of the Mbeki and Zuma years, it is shocking to see the full list of wilful destruction of state institutions and see the financial cost and future implications. Terrifying and sad.
One person found this helpful
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Shorrock Christopher
5.0 out of 5 stars Read this as an eyeopening update on South African politics.
Reviewed in France on February 17, 2016
Verified Purchase
A well written, extremely readable and most alarming insight into the road taken by South African Democracy after the return of Mandella.
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Mark Stewart
5.0 out of 5 stars Liberal Wet Dream becomes Nightmare.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on November 19, 2015
Verified Purchase
A well-researched, brave and revealing book. The book provides a framework that can be equally applied to other countries in generating comparative analysis. Johnson displays an objectivity and readable form that brings an appraisal of SA in an international context, assessing capital flows and lack of South African competitiveness. A profound understanding and a savvyness which is at once shrewd, insightful and chilling. It is an indictment on the criminal class that now claims to be the SA “government” that is more self-serving and despicable in its lack of accountability, competence and parasitic nature. In its end analysis it suggests a change of regime or rather a fracturing of the current regime into the sensible and insensible, suggesting that given the likelihood of financial collapse. IMF support is expected to be sort and its unlikely their terms would be palatable to the current ANC configuration…requiring a realignment with either common sense or luddite majority holding power. This effective regime change will determine how SA either escapes its downward trajectory or falls victim to it and potentially breaks up as a failed state. All very sad, a country that had so much promise, so much good will extended to the infant regime, so much an indulgence of the western lefty PC elite. This Liberal “Wet Dream” has now become a nightmare!!
One person found this helpful
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Grant Pratt
5.0 out of 5 stars This book has put so many questions regarding why the ...
Reviewed in Australia on June 4, 2016
Verified Purchase
This book has put so many questions regarding why the government does what it has, and why so many strange occurrences happened with change of leadership and why certain prominent ANC members fell from grace at ease. Until I read this book I regarded myself as well informed and largely in touch with the South African political climate. Clearly I was not and this book is both enlightening and concerning. It is not a prediction of where SA is going but sadly the real truth about where SA is. As much as we deny the facts and hope in vain that we may be wrong about the future of SA, this book puts it into perspective. Every South African should read this.
One person found this helpful
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RAS
4.0 out of 5 stars How long will South Africa survive?
Reviewed in France on June 13, 2018
Verified Purchase
En 1977, la première édition de ce livre évaluait la capacité du régime de l'apartheid à survivre. Maintenant que l'apartheid est morte, la deuxième édition de 2017, évidemment réécrite, parle de l'Afrique du Sud récente et de ses chances de survie : le règne de Zuma, l'état de l'économie, la corruption généralisée, certains évènements récents comme le limogeage du ministre Nene, etc. Le livre est en partie dépassé par les évènements (démission forcée de Zuma, arrivée au pouvoir de Ramaphosa), mais se lit bien pour comprendre la situation actuelle qui ne sera pas miraculeusement changée.
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